机构地区: 中华人民共和国环境保护部
出 处: 《安徽农业科学》 2010年第19期10332-10334,共3页
摘 要: 通过分析1981~2007年我国城镇居民家庭人均食物氮年消费量的趋势变化,并进行ARIMA模型时间序列预测分析,以揭示我国城镇化过程中城镇家庭食物氮消费的发展变化规律。结果表明,20世纪80年代后我国城镇居民食物氮年消费量经历了上升—下降—再上升的变化趋势,总体上处于轻微的上升趋势;随着经济快速发展和城市化进程的加快,未来居民食物氮消费量仍然保持持续上升状态,并且具有较大的上升空间。 Change trend of Chinese urban residents' per capita food-nitrogen annual consumption from 1981 to 2007 was analyzed and predicted by using ARIMA time-series model in order to reveal the change law of urban food-nitrogen consumption during the China's urbanization process.Results showed that after 1980s,the annual consumption of Chinese urban residents' food-nitrogen had a change trend of "increase-decrease-increase" and generally presented as a slight increasing trend;with the acceleration of rapid economic development and urbanization process,Chinese urban residents' food-nitrogen consumption will still keep a rising trend in future,furthermore it has a larger rising space.
关 键 词: 食物消费 氮 秩相关系数 模型 城镇居民 中国
领 域: [环境科学与工程]