作　　者： ; ; ;

机构地区： 吉首大学商学院

出　　处： 《资源科学》 2010年第4期686-692,共7页

摘　　要： 张家界旅游业发达,吸引着众多的国内外游客,然而客流量年内变化较大,主要受气候舒适度的影响。本文结合近3年入境旅游和国内旅游客流量的年内变化,计算了客流量月指数并划分了旅游活动的淡旺季;利用1971年—2000年气候资料,对张家界市旅游气候舒适性进行了评价,划分了旅游活动的适宜性等级和时段分布;在对气候舒适度与若干虚拟因子数值化的基础上,采用OLS方法建立了客流量月指数与气候舒适度的相关性,结果显示:①入境游客年内变化主要受气候影响,入境旅游月指数气候弹性系数1.7382%;②国内旅游不仅受气候舒适性影响,还受7月—8月暑假以及"五·一黄金周"、"十·一黄金周"的影响,客流量月指数气候弹性系数为1.9297%。本项研究,为张家界市客流量年内变化预测、旅游地开发、景区管理提供了科学依据。 Climate comfort degree plays a key role in exploiting scenic spots, because it directly affects the length of tourist seasons and the number of tourists in each month. Tourism in Zhangjiajie, a prefecture-level city in Hunan Province, China, and characterized by the National Forest Park, is flourishing. There are a large number of tourists at home and abroad going to Zhangjiajie every year, but the number in each month varies greatly, which could probably be affected by climate comfort degree over this area. Based on 30 years of climatic data of Zhangjiajie City, the climate comfort degree of Zhangjiajie was analyzed in terms of the temperature and humidity index （THI） and wind chill index （WCI）, the grades of fitness and its temporal distribution were reasonably categorized. It was found that the climate over the study area is very comfortable in May and September; it is thus the best time for touring. The climate is relatively comfortable in April, June, August and October. The climate is deemed relatively uncomfortable in March, July and November. The climate is uncomfortable in January, February and December. Monthly variations in international tourists and domestic tourists in the latest 3 years were used to partition the dull season and the busy season for tourism and to calculate the monthly index. In order to examine the relationship between climate comfort degree and monthly variations in tourists, grades of the THI were given, with changing the grades ‘e, d, c, b, A, B , C, D, E’ to ‘-4, -3, -2, -1, 0, -1, -2, -3, -4’. Based on the derived values of climate comfort degree and other assumed factors, the correlation analysis between monthly index and climate comfort degree was performed with the aid of the ordinary least squares （OLS） method. Results showed that first, April, May, July, August and October are busy seasons for international tourism whereas the dull seasons are January, February and December. The variation in international tourists in a year is primarily affected by clim

关 键 词： 气候舒适度 客流量月变化 相关性分析 张家界市

领　　域： [环境科学与工程]