作　　者： ; ;

机构地区： 暨南大学

出　　处： 《当代经济科学》 2010年第2期38-44,共7页

摘　　要： "二战"后,新兴市场经济(EMS)也存在广泛的金融抑制。抑制政策可能有短期增长效应;但本文理论模型显示,长期内,竞争机制会耗散金融租金,EMS实际增长率低于有保障和自然的增长率。70年代末期以来,EMS放松了金融规制。因价格调整快于数量调整、金融市场调整快于产品和劳动力市场,金融自由化产生负产出效应。负产出是基本的风险源。来自于金融、实际部门的任何冲击以及制度与政策失灵,都可能引发金融危机。抑制程度越深,负产出效应越大,人均产出越低,自由化过程中发生金融危机的概率也越大。本文使用25个国家1980～2001年的数据,以二元选择模型对上述假说进行实证检验。 Some developing countries become the emerging markets (EMs) because of their excellent economic performance after the Second World War.However,EMs have severe financial regulations.This paper develops a model of financial repression that shows that the rent from repression is dissipated because of competition,that the financial repression may go against capital formation,and that the actual growth may be lower than warranted and natural growth.These countries deregulated financial system since the late of 1970.However,the liberalization brought about negative output effect because of rapid relative price adjustment to quantity and rapid financial market adjustment to product market.The negative output is the basic source of financial crises.Any shock from financial and real sectors and policy mistakes may result in financial crises.The higher degree of repression,the bigger negative output effect,the less the output per capita,the larger probability of crises.

关 键 词： 非对称调整 负产出效应 金融危机 新兴市场经济

领　　域： [经济管理]