作　　者： ; ; ;

机构地区： 清华大学环境学院

出　　处： 《中国人口·资源与环境》 2010年第3期14-18,共5页

摘　　要： 由于社会对水泥需求的不断增长,多年来山东省水泥工业一直处于快速发展时期。作为国民经济的基础工业同时也是高耗能行业,山东省水泥行业面临着巨大的CO2减排压力。同时,技术自身的先进性决定了其相应的减排潜力,而减排效果的实现程度则取决于技术的推广度。在技术的推广过程中,其减排潜力、减排成本以及相关的政策支持都是关键性的影响因素,针对技术实施障碍进行深入的分析和探讨对实际减排效果的预测具有重要的意义。本研究利用长期能源替代规划系统软件建立了LEAP-Shandong Cement模型,对山东省水泥行业的CO2排放量及相应的减排潜力进行了模拟评估。到2020年,相对于基准情景,政策情景和技术情景下的减排潜力分别为8.2%和15.6%。山东省水泥行业实现减排主要依靠窑型的替代和相应技术的进步,其中余热发电技术改进为近期的重点减排技术,在水泥行业减排兼具显著的环境、经济和社会效益。 Due to increasing demand of cement in Shandong province, the cement sector remains in rapid development for many years. Therefore, the cement sector in Shandong faces to a huge pressure of CO2 emission reduction as a fundamental industry of national economy and also as an energy-consum/ng sector. Meanwhile, the characteristic of technology itself determines the corresponding emission reduction potential, and the mitigation effect depends on the promotion degree of technologies. In the process of penetration, mitigation potential, costs, and relative supportive policies are key factors. In-depth analysis for the implementation barriers of technologies and the predicted effects of the actual emission reduction has an important significance. A LEAP-Shandong Cement model has been established here through long-term energy planning system software to simulate the CO2 emissions and the corresponding reduction potential of cement industry of Shandong Province. Three scenarioes of baseline scenario, policy scenarios and technical scenario from 2007 - 2020 have been set up. By 2020, the CO2 emission reduction potentials of policy scenario and technical scenario are 8.2% and 15.6% compared with the baseline scenario, respectively. The CO2 emission reduction in cement industry in Shandong Province mainly depends on the substitution of kiln types and the promotion of advanced technologies. Waste heat cogeneration can be viewed as a key technology in the near future to improve the energy efficiency of cement production, which has significant environmental, economic and social benefits.

关 键 词： 减排 水泥 情景分析

领　　域： [环境科学与工程]