作　　者： ; ; ;

机构地区： 东南大学交通学院

出　　处： 《国防科技大学学报》 2009年第6期126-131,共6页

摘　　要： 采用故障树分析法,对引起鸟击飞机的各个因素进行系统分析,并建立了故障树。通过定性分析,可得引起顶事件发生的2580个最小割集。采用专家判断和模糊集理论相结合的方法,评估故障树底事件发生概率的模糊性,并以"垃圾堆对鸟的吸引"这一底事件为例,计算出其模糊失效率。通过定量分析,计算出顶事件的发生概率为0.00241,同时可计算各底事件的重要度。 By means of fault tree analysis method, this paper gives a systemic analysis of the relevant factors which cause the fault of bird strike aircraft, and its fault tree is also established. Through qualitative analysis, 2580 minimum cut sets can be obtained. Export estimation method, combined with fuzzy sets theory, is adopted to assess the happening probability of the base events. The calculating of ＂waste landfill attracting bird＂-one of the base events of bird-strike-aircraft, is given as an example of this method. Through quantitative analysis, the happening probability of the top event is 0. 00241, and the importance degree of all base events can be analyzed.

关 键 词： 机场环境安全 鸟击飞机 故障树分析 专家判断 模糊集

领　　域： [航空宇航科学与技术] [航空宇航科学技术] [自动化与计算机技术] [自动化与计算机技术]