作　　者： ;

机构地区： 华南理工大学天然气利用研究中心

出　　处： 《中外能源》 2010年第2期1-9,共9页

摘　　要： 哥本哈根会议认定了“2℃”和“在2050年前全球排放量减到1990年的一半”，到2050年，碳减排要求世界人均能耗不高于2．5t标煤／a。能源碳强度ωω是一个反映碳排放与能源结构关系的新指标，利用它与一次能源消费中生成并排放二氧化碳的各种形式能源所占比率y的关联式oJ=2．4y进行推算：按照450情景方案，二氧化碳排放峰值307×108t出现在2020年，而能耗峰值在2030年左右；按照丹麦方案，二氧化碳排放峰值320xlOSt出现在2025年，能耗峰值也大约在2030年，将达到273×108t标煤，a，人均3．3t标煤／a。碳排放峰值年越推迟，达到2050年远期目标的难度越大。按照丹麦方案．2030～2050年的20年间。需平均每年减排10×108t二氧化碳，同时与450情景方案相比，大气中二氧化碳总量将增加400×108t以上。根据中国政府宣布的2010～2020年的减排目标推算，2020年能耗为41×108t标煤．二氧化碳排放约74×108t。中国只要能做到能耗强度每5年降低20％，就能够实现此目标。中国应在2020年之前快速发展非化石能源、加速产业转型、大力发展天然气、大幅提高能效，这样就完全能够与世界减排同行。 The Copenhagen conference ended with an agreement to limit temperature rise to 2℃ and cut global GHG emissions to 50% of the1990 level gets,the world＇s average energy consumption per Energy by 2050.To meet the 2050 carbon emission reduction tar- capita should not exceed 2.5t of coal equivalent per year. carbon intensity to is a new indicator reflecting the relationship between carbon emission and energy mix.It is calculated using the formula to=2.4T,in which 9/ is the shares of various primary energy sources that generate and emit carbon dioxide.Under the lEA 450ppm Scenario,the global carbon dioxide emission will peak at 307×108t in 2020 and the global energy consumption will peak in around 2030.According to the Denmark scenario,the carbon dioxide emission will peak at 320×108t in 2025 and the energy consumption will also peak around 2030,at 273×108t of coal equivalent per year,3.3t of coal equivalent per capita per year The later the carbon emission peaks,the greater the difficulty of achieving the 2050 long-term targets will be.Under the Denmark scenario,the world needs to cut 10×108t of carbon dioxide emissions annually from 2030-2050 and compared with the 450ppm Scenario,the total volume of carbon dioxide in the atmo- sphere will rise by at least 400×108t.According to the 2010-2020 GHG emission reduction targets announced by the Chinese government,China＇s energy consumption by 2020 will reach 41×108t of coal equivalent and carbon dioxide emissions will reach around 74×108t.As long as China＇s energy intensity drops by 20% every five years,these targets are achievable.China should quicken its pace of developing non-fossil fuels and trans- forming its industries,step up effort to develop natural gas and significantly raise its energy effficiency.If so, China will not lag behind in reducing GHG emissions.

关 键 词： 碳减排 能源碳强度 能耗 减排目标 天然气能效

领　　域： [动力工程及工程热物理] [政治法律] [政治法律]