作　　者： ; ;

机构地区： 华南理工大学工商管理学院

出　　处： 《管理评论》 2009年第12期34-41,共8页

摘　　要： 基于复杂性的观点,本文将标准的转换过程视为一个在大量个体之间的重复博弈尤其是个体和自身邻域其他个体博弈的过程。研究采用元胞自动机空间博弈模型对此进行计算机建模,通过建立二个模型,即最基本的基准模型和包括异质性的较复杂模型对此进行仿真分析,并在模型中引入个体策略的更新与模仿学习机制。仿真结果及其统计分析结论表明,标准转换过程呈现非线性的性质,最终结果受到消费者的邻域结构和初始状态策略的分布状况的影响。标准给用户带来的效用差异越大,转换成本越低则越会促进标准的转换。仿真也表明消费者的异质性对于网络外部性下标准转换的收敛状况和收敛速度都有比较大的影响,异质性一般并不能促进新旧标准的转换,决定新标准能否得到采用的根本原因还是新标准能够给用户带来更多的收益。 Based upon the theory of complexity, this paper studies the standard transition as a process which every agent plays game with his neighborhood agent repeatedly, and we model this using the CA theory. In this paper, we set up two models which consist of the benchmark model and the heterogeneous agent model. The agent imitation learning is also introduced to the model. The simulation results show that the standard transition process exhibits non-linear feature, and the final result is affected by the consumer neighborhood and initial strategy distribution. Very little difference may lead to quite different result. The more utility the standard brings to the consumer, the lower the switch cost will be and the smoother the transition process will be. Finally, simulation shows that agent heterogeneous will not speed up the diffusion of new standard in general. The fundamental reason of the replacement of the old standard by the new one is that the new standard will bring more utility to the customer.

关 键 词： 标准转换 元胞自动机 网络外部性

领　　域： [经济管理] [经济管理] [经济管理]