机构地区: 广东药学院
出 处: 《图书情报工作》 2009年第24期83-85,100,共4页
摘 要: 专家的有限理性或认知偏差—主要是参考点效应和证实性偏差,是德尔菲法技术预见准确性和可靠性低的导因。克服德尔菲法的缺陷需要在邀请专家参加技术预见时就提供给专家一个可靠的参考点。提出专利分析具有作为德尔菲法技术预见参考点的潜力,并通过理论论证和实证检验,证明了专利分析能够作为德尔菲法技术预见的参考点。 There are two limitations in Delphi technology foresight: one is anchoring effect, the other is confirmatory bias. To over-come the weakness of Delphi, a reliable anchoring approach should be provided to experts before Delphi survey. Patent analysis is proposed as technology foresight anchoring approach in this paper. Through theory analysis and empirical test, patent analysis is proved to be a reliable anchoring approach for experts.
关 键 词: 专利分析 技术预见 参考点 有限理性 实证分析
领 域: [文化科学]