作　　者： ; ; ; ; ;

机构地区： 华东师范大学河口海岸科学研究院河口海岸学国家重点实验室

出　　处： 《自然资源学报》 2009年第11期1944-1951,共8页

摘　　要： 城市水资源承载力是水资源对城市社会经济发展规模支撑能力的表征,是城市水安全的基本度量,它是涉及社会经济系统、水资源系统和生态环境系统的一个衡量指标。论文利用灰色系统理论、模糊集理论和最大熵原理相结合的熵模型对开封市未来预测年份水资源承载力进行评价,特别考虑了半湿润地区开封城市主要利用黄河客水资源的特点,选取了客水利用率这一评价指标。研究结果表明,2010年和2020年开封市城市发展无论在哪种预测情景方案下的水资源承载力综合评价都处于2级与3级之间,并且距离2级很近,说明水资源的开发强度很高,继续开发利用的潜力很小。研究成果可为中型城市水资源承载力评价及城市发展规划提供依据。 Water resources carrying capacity （WRCC） is an index, which reflects the supporting ability of the water resources system for sustainable socio-economic development. And it is the foundational measurement of water resources security, also it is a complex system which involves soeio-economic system, water resources system and eco-environmental system. Therefore, through studying WRCC of urbanized area, not only the supporting functions for social development, resources, environment and harmonized developmental relationship among the population will be understood, but also the socio-economic sustainable development can be comprehended well. WRCC of Kaifeng city in the future years was analyzed by using the entropy model, which was combined by the grey system theory, the fuzzy theory and the theory of maximum entropy. Notablely, the water of the Yellow River was considered and the index of the ratio of using exterior reach water was selected in this essay. The results were shown as follows： Developing economy of Kaifeng under any scenario of forecasting projects in the year of 2010 and 2020 will have the WRCC level laid between grade 2 and 3, and it is more close to grade 2. And the serious problem of water shortage must be resolved by relevant authorities.

关 键 词： 城市化 水资源承载力 熵模型 开封市

领　　域： [水利工程]