作　　者： ; ; ;

机构地区： 华南理工大学自动化科学与工程学院安全科学与工程研究所

出　　处： 《华东交通大学学报》 2009年第5期19-25,共7页

摘　　要： 通过对广州市天寿路交叉口高峰时段的流量调查及广州市的交通事故数据分析,发现北京市与广州市交通流量与事故数据存在相近性关系。应用线性回归分析法、事故率法建立北京市交通流量与交通事故数之间的一元线性关系模型,对广州市某交叉口的交通事故数进行预测分析。结果表明,在交通流量高峰时段,影响交通事故的最主要因素为交通流量,交通流量对于快速处理的事故影响作用大于一般事故;在交通流量相当小时段,交通事故存在着很大的偶然性,两者的关联度不高。 Beijing and Guangzhou are found to be similar in the aspect of traffic flow and accident data by analyzing the traffic flow of traffic peak hours in Tianshou Road intersection in Guangzhou City, and the traffic accident data of Guangzhou. In order to establish the one-dimensional linear relationship model between traffic flow and accidents in Beijing, the linear regression analysis and the accident rate method are applied and the obtained results are used to pre- dict the number of traffic accidents of some road intersection in Guangzhou city. The results indicate that in the traffic flow peak hours, what affects traffic accident most is the traffic flow, and that the effect of traffic flow on rapid processing of accident is larger than the general accidents. When the traffic flow is small, traffic accidents are most likely to happen, and the relationship of the both is not obvious.

关 键 词： 交通安全 城市交叉口 交通流量 预测模型

领　　域： [交通运输工程] [交通运输工程]