作　　者： ; ; ;

机构地区： 南京农业大学公共管理学院

出　　处： 《中国人口·资源与环境》 2009年第5期111-116,共6页

摘　　要： 采用经济计量分析方法通过观察1986-2006年中国建设占用耕地数量与人口增长之间的动态演进机制,提出两者之间的因果关系的假设,并进行了验证。研究结果表明我国建设占用耕地资源数量变化与人口增长具有协整关系,即两者之间存在长期均衡关系;建设占用耕地资源数量与人口增长之间相互作用的效果存在明显差异,建设占用耕地资源数量对人口增长带来的冲击响应强烈,而人口增长对建设占用耕地资源数量的冲击响应则相对较弱;进而验证建设占用耕地资源数量的变化与人口增长之间存在从人口增长到建设占用耕地数量变化的单向Granger因果关系,而从建设占用耕地数量变化到人口增长的Granger因果关系并不显著。因此,为协调"人口—(土地)资源"的关系,我国政府在加强人口和计划生育工作的基础上,应同时采取长期而非短期的策略,把"先补后占"、耕地转用许可制度等系列耕地保护政策与土地集约节约利用作为主要途径。 This article examined the dynamic evolvement relationship between cultivated land occupation quantity by construction and population growth from 1986 to 2006 by econometrics method,and put forward to a suppose：there may be the causality between them,and then give a confirmation.And the results show that： there are co-integration relationships between cultivated land occupation quantity by construction and population growth;the response of cultivated land occupation quantity by construction to population growth impose isremarkable, while the response of population growth to cultivated land occupation quantity by construction impulse isn＇t remarkable; there is single directional Granger causality running from population growth to cultivated land occupation quantity by construction but the Granger causality running from cultivated land occupation quantity by construction to population growth is not signifieant statistically. Therefore, it is to improve the management of population growth by government and take long-term measures to harmonize the relationships between ＂populafion-（land）resourees＂ such as the ＂supply before occupation＂ policy, the permission system of cultivated land conversion and promoting the intensive land use.

关 键 词： 中国 建设占用耕地数量 人口增长 计量分析

领　　域： [经济管理]