作　　者： ; ; ; ;

机构地区： 福建农林大学园林学院

出　　处： 《热带作物学报》 2009年第5期704-709,共6页

摘　　要： 在遥感图像软件ERDAS Imagine8.5/ArcviewGIS3.2的支持下,以福建省南山风景区两个时期(1988、2004年)的影像为基础数据,对影像进行配准、图像判读、目视解译和矢量化处理,得出各个景观类型的动态变化数据,并利用马尔柯夫模型对景观格局变化进行动态预测。结果表明:在人类活动和自然因素的影响下,研究景区各景观类型变化均较明显且复杂,达到稳定状态时各景观类型的面积分别为4.1504(茶园)、400.3525(荒山荒地)、1395.1679(建筑)、94.8203(柳杉)、49.1661(毛竹)、337.7775(农田)、61.2980(杉木×马尾松)、380.2391(水体)、299.4662(松杂)、173.9969(阔叶树)hm2。其中,茶园、荒山荒地、柳杉、毛竹等景观类型呈现先上升后下降趋势,直至达到稳定状态;松杂景观仅在2018年前略有上升,随后即发生下降;建筑景观、水体面积比例始终处于上升状态;农田、杉木×马尾松和阔叶林景观则始终处于下降的趋势。由于建筑面积将大量增加,而森林景观面积则减少,景区的生态环境问题将更加突出,应该从景观和生态角度出发对各景观斑块加以管理。 The remote sensing data of tempo-spatial landscape patterns in the Nanshan scenic spot of Fujian Province in 1988 and 2004 were processed by using ERDAS Imagine8.5/ArcviewGIS3.2 to produce data of dynamic change of each landscape pattern, based on which dynamic prediction was made on the landscape pattern change by using the Markov model. The results showed that the landscape patterns gave an observable and complex change in the past 27 years as the result of human and natural impacts. Specifically speaking, the patterns of Tea garden, barren hills and lands, Chinese Cryptomeria plantation and bamboo forest increased in a few years after 2004 and then decreased until they come to the stable state. However, the mixed forest of narrow and broadleaf trees will increase to a climax before 2018, and then decrease soon. But the proportion of buildings and water body area is always ascending, and on the contrary, the farmland and Cunninghamia lanceolata ＆ Pinus massoniana forest will always be decreasing. When the landscape patterns come to the stable state, the tea garden, barren hill and land, buildings, Chinese Cryptomeria plantation, bamboo forest, farmland, Cunninghamia lanceolata ＆ Pinus massoniana forest, water, mixed forest of fine and broadleaf trees, and broadleaf forest were predicted to cover 4.150 4, 400.352 5, 1395.167 9, 94.820 3, 49.166 1,337.777 5, 61.298 0, 380.239 1,299.466 2 hm^2 and 173.996 9 hm^2. The area of buildings will increase while the area of forests will decrease, worsening the eco-environment in the scenic spot. Therefore, it is necessary to manage each landscape pattern from the viewpoint of landscape and ecology.

关 键 词： 景观 动态预测 马尔柯夫模型

领　　域： [建筑科学]