作　　者： ; ;

机构地区： 澳门理工学院

出　　处： 《旅游科学》 2009年第3期55-61,共7页

摘　　要： 本研究选择中国大陆地区人均可支配收入、消费者物价指数、国内生产总值,以及澳门与大陆之间商品进出口总额、港币与人民币汇率等变量,建立计量经济学模型估计内地赴澳门游客的数量。模型数据来源于澳门、大陆和香港官方公布的历年季度数据。在建立公式化的预测模型之后,本文还对模型的拟合优度和预测精度给予评估,对模型的基本假设进行了检验。本研究成果可作为有关政府部门和企业的决策参考。 This research built up an econometric model to estimate the possible number of visitors from China's Mainland to Macao by using the quarterly published official figures including average per person income, consumer price index of China's Mainland, the total import and export of both Mainland and Macao Special District, currency exchange rate between Hang Kong dollar and RMB, and gross domestic product of China's Mainland as the variables. With the prediction model, the paper estimated the goodness of fit and the prediction accuracy of it and tested its basic assumptions. It is expected that the finding of the research could be used as reference for the related government departments and enterprises.

关 键 词： 计量经济学模型 游客量 预测 澳门

领　　域： [经济管理] [经济管理]