作　　者： ; ; ; ;

机构地区： 中央财经大学金融学院

出　　处： 《系统工程理论与实践》 2009年第9期16-22,共7页

摘　　要： 以购买力平价理论、利率平价理论和货币主义的汇率理论为基础,构造出日元美元的汇率模型,并采用1984-2005年日美两国的经济数据,对日元美元的名义汇率和实际汇率进行回归分析,找出决定日元美元汇率的主要影响因素.在经济指标的选择上,模型中不仅选用了通常用来代表一国经济生产能力和发展水平的指标——经济增长率,同时选用了反映两国实际消费和购买能力的指标——国内消费总额,而且将利率因素引入美日汇率模型.结果表明:日元美元名义汇率变动主要决定于两国的GDP和货币供应量;实际汇率除此之外,还受两国国内消费率和利率变化的影响. Based on the PPP theory, interest rate parity theory and monetary approach to the exchange rate, this paper constructs the determined model of USD/JPY exchange rate, and by using the economic data of Japan and USA from 1984 to 2005, this paper makes regression to find the main impact factors of USD/JPY nominal and real exchange rate. This paper uses the economic increase rate which is the indicator that reflexes the economic production and development capability and total domestic consumption which is the indicator that reflexes the real purchasing power. The interest rate has also been introduced into model of USD/JPY exchange rate for the first time. Results show that USD/JPY nominal exchange rate is mainly determined by the GDP and money supply and the real exchange rate is also influenced by the domestic consumption rate and interest rate of the two countries.

关 键 词： 购买力平价 利率平价 货币论 汇率模型 名义汇率 实际汇率

领　　域： [经济管理]