机构地区: 澳门理工学院
出 处: 《心理科学》 2009年第5期1248-1251,共4页
摘 要: 人们购买彩票主要有两种动机,一是为了消遣娱乐,一是为了赢钱。消遣娱乐的动机比较容易解释,因为人有追求刺激和变化的需要,但赢钱的动机则难以解释,因为购买彩票的返奖率只有50%,通过购买彩票赚钱总体而言是不现实的。行为经济学的有限理性理论有助于这方面的解释。本研究通过对广州1101名彩票购买者的问卷调查,验证了有限理性理论对以赢钱为动机的博彩行为的解释效力,具体表现在如下五个方面:错误地认为看起来更带随机性的号码具有更高的中奖概率;错误地认为,通过自己有技巧性选择号码可以影响博彩结果;对中大奖的概率及其含义缺乏客观地认识;错误地解释"差一点点中大奖"的经历。 People buy lottery tickets out of two motivations, for entertainment and for winning money. The entertainment motivation is comparatively easy to explain: people have needs for stimulation and varieties, but the winning motivation is difficult to explain because in lottery games only about 50 % of the money will be returned in the form of prizes. The theory of "bounded rationality" in behavioral economics is helpful for the explanation: people buy lottery tickets for winning money because their rationality is bounded; therefore, their buying behavior is not very rational. Their bounded rationality found expression in the following: they erroneouly believe that random lottery numbers have greater winning probabality, that by skilfuly selecting their own lottery numbers they can influence the results of the play; they do not have an objective understanding of the probabilities and the implication of the play; they spend too much time and energy in studying the "rules" of the winning numbers; and they mistakenly explain their "near winning" experiences, etc.