作　　者： ;

机构地区： 广东工业大学

出　　处： 《广东广播电视大学学报》 2009年第4期19-22,共4页

摘　　要： 运用协整理论和Granger因果检验方法,分别对广东省1985-2007年间金融机构存贷款余额、固定投资、进出口总额与经济增长之间的因果及定量关系进行研究,结果显示,广东省金融发展与经济增长的协整和单向因果关系并不成立,金融发展对经济增长的影响作用有限,金融对经济增长的推动作用不显著。金融发展与经济增长之间虽然不具备长期稳定的均衡关系,但却是经济增长的Granger成因,对经济增长具有显著的正向推动作用。以对广东省有效数据分析为依据,探讨其现有发展模式的缺陷,对加快粤港澳三地的金融合作有重要的借鉴与启示作用。 This paper studies the relationship between financial development and economic growth in Guangdong province by Co-integration theory and Granger cause. The study is based on the recent survey of Guangdong Province in 1985-2007. The results show that Guangdong Province＇s financial development and economic growth of co-integration and one-way causal relationship is not established; the development of the finance plays a limited role in its economic growth. Financial development and economic growth is not a long-term, stable and balanced relation, but financial growth is the Granger cause of economic growth. On the basis of an effective data, it is concluded that the financial cooperation of between Guangdong, HK and Macao is critical.

关 键 词： 金融发展 经济增长 协整理论 因果检验

领　　域： [经济管理]