作　　者： ; ;

机构地区： 深圳大学土木工程学院

出　　处： 《建筑经济》 2009年第8期23-26,共4页

摘　　要： 应用香港、深圳住房市场历史数据,分别构建了香港居屋推出数量、深圳经济适用房推出比与房价变动Granger因果检验模型。发现房价水平可显著影响居屋、经济适用房的推出比;较高居屋推出数量可显著影响房价,而在经济适用房推出比较低情况下,推出比变化却无法影响房价。结论指出,当前为拉动经济发展、有效调节商品房价格水平,应积极提升经济适用房推出比、增强供给冗余、实现"建售分离"。 Based on historical data of Hong Kong ＆ Shenzhen real estate markets, this paper constructs a Granger causality model to reflect the relationship between the two variables. It is found out that housing price can significantly affect the proportion of affordable housing supply,there is a bidirectional relationship between them under high affordable housing supply, and non-bidirectional relationship under low affordable housing supply. The paper finally proposes some tactics for affordable housing as follows： in order to promote economic development and effective regulate the price of private residential flats, we should actively expand the proportion of affordable housing supply, enhance supply redundancy, achieve the separation of construction and sell.

关 键 词： 经济适用房推出比 商品房价格 格兰杰 因果关系

领　　域： [经济管理]