作　　者： ; ;

机构地区： 四川大学工商管理学院

出　　处： 《系统工程与电子技术》 2009年第7期1632-1638,共7页

摘　　要： 回顾了技术创新扩散的研究发展过程,针对以往竞争模型中没有考虑市场潜力是动态变化的缺陷,建立了动态潜力市场的技术创新竞争扩散的微分动力学三阶段模型,并利用微分动力系统理论对该模型进行了稳定性分析。利用两种创新技术采纳数和动态市场潜力对该模型进行模拟仿真,相比之前的扩散模型,发现该模型能较好地模拟实际市场扩散潜力是不断动态变化的客观现实。最后,利用该模型对两种创新技术采纳数和市场潜力进行了预测,取得了较为满意的结果。 With briefly reviewing the developing process of the conditional quantitative analysis on the diffu sion of the technology innovation, and being aimed at the lacks of the conditional quantitative analysis on the competitive diffusion of two innovations, a new dynamical model with the varied potential market is formatted. The stability analysis on this model is made with the theory of differential dynamical systems. And through the empirical analysis, it can be found that this model is better to simulate the diffusion process of the innovations in which the diffusion market potential is dynamical. The potential of adopters of the two innovations is also fore casted, and a perfect result is obtained.

关 键 词： 技术创新 竞争扩散 动力学模型

领　　域： [理学] [理学] [经济管理] [社会学]