作　　者： ; ;

机构地区： 广东外语外贸大学国际经济贸易学院

出　　处： 《数理统计与管理》 2009年第4期599-610,共12页

摘　　要： 依据现代消费理论,在符合中国经济现实假设条件下,建立了我国农民消费问题的数理函数。使用1980-2006年的宏观消费数据,通过协整模型分析表明我国农民的边际消费倾向约为0.69;基于Hausman检验的固定效应模型的面板单位根和面板协整对我国30个省份分析结果表明边际消费倾向为0.7;变截距变斜率面板模型表明各省的长期自主消费和长期边际消费倾向差异显著,上海、江苏呈现双高特征,吉林、海南和西藏则呈现双低特征,其他省份则表现为自主消费和边际消费倾向两者此高彼低的特点。差异产生的原因在于消费习惯不同以及收入差异导致的"主动、被动"消费造成的结果,提出了为西部增收以促进消费良性循环的合理的政策建议。 Based on modern consuming theory and reasonable hypothesis, this paper establishes a function about consumption problems of the farmers in our country. By the co-integration model, the datum from 1980-2005 are analyzed, and it is found that marginal propensity to consume of our farmers is 0.69; by Hausman Test to the Fixed-Effects Model of panel unit-root test and panel co-integration test to 30 provinces, it＇s found that marginal propensity to consume is 0.7; the panel model of heterogeneous intercept and slope shows that there are marked differences in spontaneous consumption and long-term propensity to consume in the different provinces of china： the two in both Shanghai and Jiangsu are very high, while those in Jilin, Hai＇nan and Tibet are both low; the situation in other provinces are that either spontaneous consumption or long-term propensity to consume is low. Varies are due to different consumption habits and different income levels, so a reasonable advice is put forward, that is, try our best to increase the income in the west to boost a virtuous circle of consumption.

关 键 词： 消费函数 面板单位根 面板协整 边际消费倾向

领　　域： [理学] [理学]