作　　者： ; ;

机构地区： 南京航空航天大学机电学院

出　　处： 《机械科学与技术》 2009年第5期596-600,共5页

摘　　要： 技术预测的研究有助于企业对产品技术进行改进或创新,提高企业竞争力。本文提出将TR IZ理论的S曲线与专利数据测算法结合起来,优势互补进行产品技术成熟度预测,既降低获取数据的难度又提高技术预测的准确度。在分析技术进化路线的基础上,使用技术进化雷达图显示多条路线上产品技术与进化极限之间的差距,从而指导创新或改进设计的方向。将上述方法应用于磁轴承技术的分析预测,结果指明其技术现状及未来发展方法,证明了该方法的可行性以及对企业创新的指导意义。 Research on technology forecasting is useful for corporation to improve or innovate. Firstly, we integrate patent data algorithm with TRIZ （Theory of Inventive Problem Solving） S curve, in order to make full use of the merits of the two methods. Through this way, more precise forecasting results can be obtained with less difficulty to obtain the data. Then, radar plot based on evolution trends is adopted to show the gap between the present technology and the evolutional terminal, which indicates the development of the focused technology. Finally, as an exampie of application, a magnetic bearing is analyzed to see its present and future development. The conclusion proves that the method is feasible and indicative.

关 键 词： 曲线 技术成熟度 技术进化 雷达图

领　　域： [一般工业技术] [文化科学]