作　　者： ; ;

机构地区： 江西财经大学金融学院

出　　处： 《当代财经》 2009年第4期51-58,共8页

摘　　要： 2005年7月汇改以来,人民币出现了持续快速的升值,并使我国出口增速明显放缓、外贸企业经营困难加重。针对人民币升值是否已经过头以及人民币汇率是高估还是低估这一问题,运用Elbadawi的均衡汇率模型即修正的ERER模型对人民币均衡汇率进行实证研究后表明,目前人民币汇率已经出现高估;在影响人民币均衡汇率的因素中,贸易条件、政府支出和经济开放度在长期对人民币均衡汇率影响较大,而贸易条件、国际利差和净资本流入在短期对人民币均衡汇率影响较大。因此,当前人民币汇率应改变过去那种单边升值态势,进入一种双向波动的状态;在短期内可以利用国内外利率差、净资本流入和贸易条件等变量对其进行调整,在长期则可以利用经济开放度、政府支出和贸易条件等变量对其进行调整。 Since the reform of the exchange rate in July of 2005, the value of RMB has experienced a continuous and fast appreciation, which weakened the export growth of China and brought difficulties to the operation of enterprises involved in foreign trade. In connection with the problem that whether or not the appreciation of RMB is excessive and whether the present RMB exchange rate is over-estimated or under-estimated, this paper carries out an empirical study of the balanced RMB exchange rate by making use of Elbadawi＇ s balanced exchange rate model, i.e. the modified ERER model. The results show that the present RMB exchange rate is over-estimated; of all the factors affecting the balanced RMB exchange rate, the trading condition, the government expenditure and the degree of economic opening have a long-term influence on the balanced RMB exchange rate, while the trading condition, the difference of the international interest rate and the net capital inflow have a short-term influence on the balanced RMB exchange rate. Therefore, the present unilateral appreciation of RMB exchange rate should be changed into a state of two-way fluctuation. During the short-term, it can be adjusted by taking advantage of such variables as the differences between international and domestic interest rates, the net capital inflow and the trading conditions; during the long-term, it can be adjusted by taking advantage of such variables as the degree of economic opening, the government expenditure and the trading conditions.

关 键 词： 人民币 均衡汇率 模型

领　　域： [经济管理]