作　　者： ; ; ;

机构地区： 南京航空航天大学经济与管理学院

出　　处： 《管理科学》 2009年第1期113-120,共8页

摘　　要： 技术进步对推动中国当前经济的快速发展有着举足轻重的作用,技术进步贡献率则是对这种作用的有效衡量。测算技术进步贡献率首先需要确定要素产出弹性,针对当前要素产出弹性和技术进步贡献率估计存在的分歧问题,利用参数方法,借助经济增长与技术进步关系的计量经济模型,在对C-D生产函数进行扩展的基础上,改进了要素产出弹性的估计方法,提出利用灰色理论和非参数局部线性估计相结合对要素产出弹性进行动态估计的方法,并用该方法估算了1986年～2006年中国制造业资本和劳动的产出弹性,测算中国制造业分时期的技术进步贡献率。研究结果表明,中国制造业技术进步贡献率小于50%,经济增长主要还是靠增加要素投入驱动,属于粗放型增长方式。用本研究的方法估计的产出弹性来测算的技术进步贡献率对非技术因素具有一定程度的过滤作用,有效消除了索洛余值中的非技术进步因素,为技术进步贡献率的测算提供了参考依据。 Technological advance has a pivotal role on promoting China＇s economic development, and the contribution rate of technological advance is an effective to measure this effect. We should estimate the elasticity of output factors before calculating the contribution rate of technological advance. In view of the contradiction that we may encounter when we use elasticity of output factors to estimate the contribution ratio of technical advance, this paper improves the estimating method of elements output elasticity on the basis of the C- D production function expansion. It uses parameters method and the econometric models of relationship between economic growth and technological advance. We propose a method that combines grey theory and nonparametric local linear estimation to do dynamic estimation on elasticity of output of elements, and adopt it to calculate Chinese manufacturing industry＇s contribution ratio of technical advance in different periods. The results show that the contribution rate of technological advance to the output growth is less than 50% in Chinese manufacturing industry. Economic growth is mainly driven by increasing in factor inputs, and it belongs to the extensive mode of growth. Furthermore, contribution rate of technical progress calculated by the method this paper proposes has some degree of filtering to non-technical factors. The method eliminates the non technical elements in Solow remaining effectively, and provides a reference for estimating the contribution rate of technological advance.

关 键 词： 要素产出弹性 技术进步贡献率 模型

领　　域： [经济管理]