作　　者： ; ; ; ; ;

机构地区： 上海市园林科学研究所

出　　处： 《植物保护学报》 2008年第4期345-350,共6页

摘　　要： 为探索构建定量的城市绿地害虫灾害预警体系，指导城市绿地害虫防控工作，以褐边绿刺蛾为代表，将害虫对绿化植物的危害作为自然灾害与风险的一种形式进行剖析，采用多指标综合计算法，将害虫灾变过程中警源、警兆和警情等不同风险要素的36项指标进行1～5级赋值并运算。以上海环城绿带南汇段为示范区，预测2006年褐边绿刺蛾第2代灾害发生情况。结果表明，该区段警源、警兆和警情值分别为25．9、28．3和27．4，综合警度值为81．6，符合中警等级要求，应发布黄色预警信号。 In order to construct quantitative alarm system instructing the control method of the pests of urban green, this paper took hazards of urban green plant pests as one of the important natural calamities and risks, and based on indexes of risky resource, risky sign and risky case, the methods of constructing early-warning index system including 36 indexes of Parasa consocia Walker were put forward. The factor could be measured for risk by 1 to 5 grades with the methods of fixed quantity or qualitative analysis. Using P. consocia in Nanhui District of Shanghai City circling greenbelt as an example, the result showed that each factor index of risky resource, risky sign and risky case was 25.9, 28.3 and 27.4, respectively： The integrated calamities of the 2^nd generation of P. consocia in 2006 suited for middle risk with the index 81.6 and yellow alerts should be delivered.

关 键 词： 褐边绿刺蛾 预警 指标体系 应用

领　　域： [农业科学] [农业科学] [环境科学与工程]