作　　者： ; ;

机构地区： 暨南大学经济学院

出　　处： 《国际经贸探索》 2008年第7期14-18,共5页

摘　　要： 文章的定性分析表明,既存在支持国际石油价格波动会对我国通货膨胀产生影响的理由,也存在削弱这种影响的理由,而VAR经验分析表明,并没有令人信服的经验结果支持国际石油价格波动会对我国通货膨胀产生影响的结论,这种影响在25%的显著性水平上,即使在滞后12期之后,也至多是微弱的。 In the literature it is postulated that the fluctuations of international oil price have significant effects on our inflation rate, and the causality of such effects is qualitative analysis of this essay shows that there significantly unidirectional from the former to the latter. The are some evidences supporting the above postulation, but some others not. Nevertheless, the empirical evidence of this essay from VAR model shows the there is no convincing quantitative evidence supporting the above postulation, and the effects of international oil price fluctuations on our inflation rate are very weak, even if the significance level is set at 25% and the term is lagged 12 phases

关 键 词： 国际油价 通货膨胀

领　　域： [经济管理]