作　　者： ; ;

机构地区： 哈尔滨工业大学

出　　处： 《土木工程学报》 2008年第7期87-91,共5页

摘　　要： 中国房地产业快速发展的同时存在房价居高不下的现象,从而引发对泡沫的争论。在分析房地产泡沫的成因和演化机理的基础上,指出在内在传导机制和外在冲击机制的共同作用下,人们基于正反馈的投机行为和非理性预期是房地产泡沫形成的主要影响因素;在投机行为理论的基础上建立了基于房地产内在价值的泡沫度测定计量经济学模型,利用1997～2005年的房地产业数据分别对全国范围、北京、上海进行了实证分析,计算出不同地区房地产市场的泡沫度,结果表明与现实状况非常吻合。通过对房地产泡沫度测定的研究,可以为国家相关部门提供泡沫度定量化的方法,指出房地产泡沫具有可控性,政府可以针对不同的泡沫度采取不同的政策对房地产泡沫预警,保障房地产业处于健康运行状态。 With the rapid development of real estate industry, housing prices are higher and higher in China, bringing about arguments on real estate bubble. The causes of real estate bubble and evolution mechanism are analyzed, and it is found that the peoples＇excessive expectations based on positive feedback and irrational prospective are the main influencing factors of real estate bubble. An econometrics model of the degree of real estate bubble based on inherent value is established. Using the real estate market data from 1997 to 2005, empirical studies on the nation, Beijing, and Shanghai are conducted, respectively, to obtain the degree of bubble of different regions, and the results are in accordance with the reality. By studying of the degree of real estate bubble, a quantitative method is proposed for government use in taking macro-control measures. Different policies are carried out according to different bubble degrees for early warning, so that real estate market operates in a healthy manner.

关 键 词： 房地产泡沫 内在价值 投机行为 泡沫度 演化机理

领　　域： [经济管理]