作　　者： ; ; ; ;

机构地区： 南京大学环境学院污染控制与资源化研究国家重点实验室

出　　处： 《自然灾害学报》 2008年第1期81-85,共5页

摘　　要： 保险担当着不可或缺的风险转移、风险担保和风险控制的重要职责,保险公司亦成为政府推动灾害综合风险管理发展的得力助手,但保险公司在进行风险管理的同时,自身也面临着高风险。为了给保险公司在承保业务时提供科学的风险防范指导,促进保险业的健康发展,基于Hoovering改进模型,利用广义回归神经网络对企业通过投保行为转移给保险公司的脆弱性进行了研究和评估。选择湖南省长沙市为研究区,利用湖南省人民保险公司的业务数据库,对该地区水灾转移脆弱性的分布状况进行了重点研究。并且,利用构建的网络模型,对保险公司的承保决策进行风险防范的应用指导。研究结果表明,长沙市雨花区的投保企业给公司带来的水灾脆弱性整体水平最高,其次是芙蓉区。 Insurance is a special industry to manage risk and provide risk guarantee for the insurant. So, insurance company can help government improve disaster risk management. However, the risk management of insurance company is also of high risk. Therefore it is essential to control the insurance accepted risk accurately. With the Hoovering Model, this paper studies on flood transferring vulnerability assessment of insured enterprise. There is an appli- cation in Changsha City where flood occurs often. With the business database of the PICC Hunan Drovince Branch, a generalized regression neural network model is established in Matlab7.0 and used to assess enterprise＇ s flood transferring vulnerability. Moreover, according to this Model, the potential risk for insurance company to accept insurance are predicted and some scientific information can be provided for the insurance-accepting decision-making. The results show that the average flood transferring vulnerability of insured enterprises in Yuhua District, Changsha City, is the highest.

关 键 词： 脆弱性 水灾 企业 广义回归神经网络 长沙

领　　域： [经济管理]