作　　者： ; ; ;

机构地区： 广东外语外贸大学政治与公共管理学院应用心理管理系

出　　处： 《心理科学》 2007年第3期680-682,共3页

摘　　要： 针对贝叶斯推理研究中基础概率忽略现象的争论,直接操纵基础概率水平,考察被试在贝叶斯推理时是否加工了基础概率信息。结果表明,低基础概率组后验概率估计显著低,无基础概率组后验概率估计反应时显著短于有基础概率组。被试在各种条件下估计的正确率都较低,说明对基础概率在贝叶斯推理中的作用考虑不充分。 In order to clarify the disputes of the base-rate neglect phenomenon in Bayesian reasoning, the study examined whether the information of base-rate is processed in Bayesian reasoning. The results showed that post probability estimation was significantly lower under low base-rate conditions than that under high base-rate conditions; RT was remarkably shorter under no-base-rate conditions than that under base-rate conditions. The correct rate was low under all conditions. This indicated that the information of base-rate was processed cursorily .

关 键 词： 贝叶斯推理 基础概率 概率估计

领　　域： [哲学宗教]