机构地区: 中山大学岭南学院
出 处: 《经济研究》 2007年第5期27-41,共15页
摘 要: 本文对人民币均衡汇率研究方法进行了较详细的评论,这有助于正确理解实际汇率概念及均衡汇率研究方法。我们发现,应用现有的均衡汇率方法来研究人民币定价问题,尚存在诸多不足之处。有鉴于此,本文以汇率错位下的均衡汇率回复机制作为理论基础,通过理性预期技术以利用远期外汇市场包含的信息,提出了一种判断和计算汇率错位的新算法。作为新算法的应用,我们还构造出人民币外向实际有效汇率指数,利用NDF远期人民币汇率数据,计算了人民币汇率错位水平。结果表明,要恢复到均衡汇率水平,人民币在2005年6月末应升值4.39%,达到7.91人民币/美元。 After commenting on the rationale and feasibility of current RMB equilibrium-exchange-rate research, the paper concludes that current approaches fail in calculating the desirable appreciation scale of RMB. In view of this, we design a new algorithm to calculate exchange-rate misalignment. We aim at utilizing efficiently the information embodied in forward exchange rate market by applying rational expectation technique under the framework of equilibrium-exchange-rate reverting mechanism. A new pricing formula is then derived and empirically, by constructing the external real effective exchange rate index and using RMB NDF data, we show that RMB should be appreciated by 4.39% by the end of June in 2005.