作 者: ;
机构地区: 广东商学院金融学院
出 处: 《广东商学院学报》 2007年第1期58-62,共5页
摘 要: 引入居民支出增长预期变量,结合预防性储蓄动机等因素,能够较全面地解释居民的储蓄和消费行为。VaR(风险值)模型分析说明,支出增长预期对未来消费变化的影响仅次于可支配收入因素,但要强于预防性动机对消费的影响。该分析的政策涵义是,为促进消费对经济的拉动作用,应该采取措施抑制教育、住房和医疗保健等支出的过快增长,强化财政的公共服务功能。同时,要健全社会保障制度,提高居民的可支配收入水平。 The expectation on expenditure can explain residents' consumptions and savings,combined with precautionary motive.The VAR model illustrates that the expectation of expenditure is only second to disposable income on consumption,but is superior to the precautionary motive.This paper suggests,in order to stimulate town residents' consumption,we should take actions to control the soaring increase in such consumptions as housing, education and healthcare, and improve public fiscal services.Meanwhile we should improve the disposable income of residents and strengthen the system of social security.
领 域: [经济管理]