作　　者： ; ; ;

机构地区： 北京大学环境科学与工程学院水沙科学教育部重点实验室

出　　处： 《中国沙漠》 2007年第1期40-45,共6页

摘　　要： 以奈曼旗为例，根据农牧业生产综合模型对农牧业生产的主要方面进行了分析。农牧业生产中，资本对产出的贡献最大，有效劳动和土地生产力次之，表明奈曼旗的生产处于规模报酬递增的增长时期。农牧业生产基本呈指数增长，且1951-1980年增长较缓，1980年以后增长很快。固定资本的增长较为稳定和缓慢，生产费用的增长具有波动性。生产费用与施肥量和沙漠化程度关系显著，当年生产费用与上年产出高度相关，同时由于生产费用对产出增加有很高的贡献，说明农牧交错区的农牧业发展中存在负反馈关系。土地生产潜力利用率反映了农牧业生产与土地生产力之间的关系，该利用率在0～0．4之间波动，并且1980年以前利用率低且波动小，说明这段时期的农牧业生产整体水平不高，1980年以后利用率高且波动大，资本对产出贡献的比重下降，土地生产潜力的重要性相对增大。 A set of basic data for agriculture-stock production was acquired through careful integration and analysis of existing material from different sources such as various statistic departments of the governments and scientific studies. Many characteristics of agriculture-stock production can be unveiled by using data assisted by a group of hierarchical models built specially for agriculture-stock production. It was found out that the elastic coefficients of capital, effective labor and land productivity descend in turn. It means that capital gives the biggest share to development, and effective labor and land productivity give less. To the production function, the flow capital is more effective than the constant capital. With time going, the importance of the capital goes down and the other two factors begin more important. And effective labor is changing a lot to reflect the needs for knowledge in modern agriculture. Neiman is still in the period of increasing return to scale, while the increasing return becomes less. The use rate of land potential productivity varies within 0-0.4. The rate before 1980 is low and less fluctuated, which means that the agriculture-stock raising productivity is low and less need to land productivity in that period. The rate after 1980 is high and much more fluctuated. In this period, the percents of capital endowment go down and land productivity is more important. There is negative feedback between the flow capital and agriculture-stock raising production in agro-pastoral interlaced region; also negative feedback existed between economic system and natural system.

关 键 词： 农牧交错区 农牧业生产 基础数据 模型应用 弹性系数 奈曼旗

领　　域： [农业科学]