作　　者： ; ; ; ;

机构地区： 中山大学环境科学与工程学院

出　　处： 《环境科学与技术》 2006年第8期45-47,共3页

摘　　要： 根据广州市的统计资料,分析了广州市交通环境承载力的变化态势,应用主成分分析方法定量分析了交通环境承载力变化的宏观驱动因子。结果表明:经济发展动态和社会系统压力是影响广州市交通环境承载力变化的主要驱动因素。结合主成分分析结果构建了多元线性回归模型,预测了2010和2015年广州市交通环境承载力的变化趋势,为政府部门规划城市交通规模及实现城市交通可持续发展提供决策依据。 The trend of traffic environmental carrying capacity (TECC) in Guangzhou was analysed based on the statistical data. Macro-driving forces for TECC change were discussed quantitatively by principal component analysis. It was found that dynamic factors of economical development and social system pressure were main driving forces to affect on the change of TECC. By designing multiple linear regressive models along with the result of principal component analysis, the number of motor vehicles in Guangzhou was predicted for 2010 and 2015, which will provide scientific basis for sustainable development of transportation in this city.

关 键 词： 交通环境承载力 驱动因子 主成分分析 回归预测 广州市

领　　域： [环境科学与工程]