作　　者： ; ; ; ;

机构地区： 中南大学交通运输工程学院

出　　处： 《中国铁道科学》 2006年第3期111-115,共5页

摘　　要： 客流分担率估算的常用方法有分担率曲线法和函数模型法,通过比选决定采用函数模型法中的Logit模型。从旅客和社会需求的角度,对传统的Logit模型特征函数求解进行改进;以安全性、快捷性、票价水平、舒适度、开行间隔、方便性、服务水平和环境友好性等8个参数确定运输产品的效用值,代替传统的Logit模型求解特征函数值。在市场调查和参考专家建议的基础上,确定8个参数的效用值,利用改进的Logit模型,计算出在广深间旅客运输市场中铁路的需求分担率为46.7%,公路为53.3%。依据1999—2003年广深间实际客流量的变化情况,计算出铁路对总客运需求的满足率为18.8%,城际铁路对城际旅客运输需求的满足率为72.7%。可见,广深铁路还远远不能满足社会的客运需求。因此,铁路四线建设应该加速,运营组织模式应该改进。 The methods in common use for estimating the distribution rate of passenger flow are distribution rate curve method and function model method. Logit model of function model method is adopted by comparison and selection. From the viewpoint of both passengers and social demands, the solutions of Eigenfunction in traditional model are improved, The paper presents eight indices including security level, transport price, travel speed, comfort degree, traveling interval, convenience level, service level and environmental friendliness etc, by which the utility values of transportation product can be calculated, and substitute that from Eigenfunction in traditional Logit model. On the basis of market research and experts＇ suggestions, the utility values of related indices for railway and highway are computed respectively. The distribution rate of passenger transport demand for railway and highway in Guangzhou-Shenzhen passen ger transport market is 46.7% and 53.3 % respectively, which is obtained by using improved Logit model. According to the transport quantity of passenger flow from 1999 to 2003, the computing results of satisfaction rates of railway for the overall passenger transport demand and inter-city transport demand are 18. 8% and 72.7% respectively. It is obvious that Guangzhou-Shenzhen railway is far from meeting the social demands for passenger transport. Therefore, the construction of four-line railway should be speeded up and the organization modes for operation should be improved.

关 键 词： 客流分担率 模型 运输效用值 客运需求满足率 广深铁路

领　　域： [交通运输工程] [交通运输工程]