作　　者： ; ; ;

机构地区： 中国科学院广州地球化学研究所

出　　处： 《热带地理》 2006年第1期56-60,共5页

摘　　要： 研究了近35年来海南岛耕地动态变化,认为政策、经济因素是耕地变化的最主要驱动力。选择区域总人口、国内生产总值、人均GDP、固定资产投资、城市化水平等驱动因子建立了与耕地减少量间的相关模型,结果显示研究区人口增长、经济发展与耕地减少量之间存在着比较明显的呈类似库兹涅茨曲线倒“U”型关系。认为要实现保护耕地的目标,除了依靠最严格的耕地保护政策外,还应当依靠特色农业、非农业的发展以及产业结构的升级和合理安排城乡建设用地,从而积极提高土地利用集约度。 The dynamic change of cultivated land in Hainan Island for last 35 years is studies. It is pointed out that the main driving forces of the change of cultivated land are socio-economic and policy factors. Four correlative models are built up on the relationship between the decrement of cultivated land and population, total investment in fixed assets, per-capita GDP and urbanization level. The results indicate that： the cultivated land decreased with the increase of population and economic growth, showing a Kuznets Curve. In order to realize sustainable use of euhivated land in Hainan Island, it is rather important to raise specific productivity of cultivated land by increasing investment both in capital and in agricultural technique, upgrading the industrial structure and arranging reasonably the construction land in urban and rural areas, in addition to strict management regulations for cultivated land.

关 键 词： 耕地变化 经济发展 库兹涅茨曲线 海南岛

领　　域： [经济管理]