作　　者： ; (文敏）;

机构地区： 珠海市气象局广东珠海519000

出　　处： 《中山大学学报（自然科学版）》 2005年第A02期272-275,共4页

摘　　要： 利用珠海市年月降雨和月平均温度资料,利用高桥浩一郎公式计算了珠海市年水资源量,并用气候变率、气候序列的趋势分析和M-K突变分析和功率谱分析等方法,分析珠海市近50多年水资源的年际及年代际的变化特征,并对其进行评估和预测。结果表明:珠海市50多年水资源总体有线性增多趋势,具体却有丰水期和枯水期之分。在1965年前后有一次突变而后直至1991年才明显地呈增多的趋势。功率谱分析显示没有显著周期存在。用标准化旱涝标准评价表明水资源丰(偏丰)、枯(偏枯)的年份大体相当,但近10年丰水年明显增多。利用北半球500hPa高度场和太平洋海温场的主分量因子来预测珠海市年水资源是有效的和符合实际的。 The yearly water resources of Zhuhai city are computed by Gaoqiao equation using monthly rainfall and monthly mean air temperature data of Zhuhai station, and the characteristics of inter annual and inter decade variation of water resources in resent 50 years in Zhuhai are analyzed by the methods of climate variability and trend analysis and the M-K sudden change and power spectrum analysis, and its estimation and prediction was made. The results show that： in resent 50 years, the water resources of Zhuhai city have a linear risen trend, but the high and low water terms has been happened in this period; a sudden change was happened at 1965 and have a risen trend obviously still begin at 1991, it have not significant period by power spectrum analysis. The assessment of water resources by class of dryness and wetness with standardized series show that the number of high and low water year are well-matched, but the high flow year is rise obviously in resent 10 years. The prediction of yearly water resources in Zhuhai is available and accord with the real by using the principal component factor of 500hPa height field in north hemisphere and Pacific＇ s sea surface temperature field.

关 键 词： 水资源 气候特征 预洲 珠海市

领　　域： [天文地球] [水利工程] [天文地球]