作　　者： ; (彭端）; (温坚培）; (周静）; (郭媚媚）;

机构地区： 广东省肇庆市气象局广东肇庆526040

出　　处： 《中山大学学报（自然科学版）》 2005年第A02期262-265,共4页

摘　　要： 用门限自回归模型和混合门限回归模型对广东省中西部的冬春季平均气温做预测。选取北半球500hPa高度场和太平洋海温场的分区分季节的多个气候背景场的前若干个主分量作为因子(共1792个),这些因子包含着气候背景场的主要信息,通过对预报量和预报因子群的相关筛选,选取相关系数最大的因子建立混合门限非线性回归模型。并初步探讨了气候背景场对预报量的影响。结果表明:混合门限回归模型优于门限自回归模型;前者能较好地拟合冬春气温序列,预报效果较理想。粤中西部冬季气温场与东北半球南部3-4月高度场第5个主模态相关最密切,当3-4月500hPa高度场东亚大陆为低槽控制,日本海太平洋附近为高压脊,有利于当年冬季气温偏低;春季气温场则与北半球冬季500hPa高度场第8个主模态相关密切,当冬季500hPa高度场乌拉尔山附近地区为明显的阻塞高压形势,有利于次年春季气温偏低。 In this paper, the threshold autoregressive model is improved by analyzing the principal component of the seasonal, sectorized 500 hPa geopotentail height in the northern hemisphere and the sea surface temperature field of Pacific from 1951 to 2002 to get the prognostic factor group （1792 factors） consisted of the main information of the climatological background field, and choose the factor with the highest correlation to set up the mixed threshold nonlinear model. The mean temperature in both winter and spring in the mid-western Guangdong are forecasting trial by the authors. In the mean time, the influence of the climatological background field to the forcasting avriable is initially discussed. Computational results show that the mixed threshold model is better than the threshold autoregressive one, and it can forecast the series of the temperature with perfect effect. The temperature of winter in the mid-western Guangdong has the most closed relationship with the fifth principal component of the height in the south of the north-eastern hemisphere in March to April season. The temperature of spring has most closed relationship with the eighth principal component of the north hemisphere of the 500 hPa geopotentail height in winuer.

关 键 词： 主分量因子 混合门限回归模型 冬春气温 广东中西部

领　　域： [经济管理]