作　　者： ; ;

机构地区： 江门市城市地理信息中心

出　　处： 《热带地理》 2005年第4期312-316,共5页

摘　　要： 介绍了元胞自动机(CA)模型、马尔柯夫(MARKOV)和层次分析(AHP)的概念和原理,在分析城市空间演化过程和模型特点的基础上,对标准CA模型进行扩展,构造出CA-MARKOV-AHP复合模型。在G IS和基础地理信息数据库的支持下,对广东江门城市空间的演变进行模拟和预测。 Cities are dynamic intricate systems, and the integrity of CA and other city models with the ability to calculate time and space have the great advantage of resolving urban land expansion problem. In this paper the concept and theory of CA and MARKOV and AHP are introduced. Through the analysis of urban land dynamic process and the attribute of other models, a compound CA model is put forward. The model that couples CA with Markov and AHP is a useful method for simulating and predicting the land use growth situation. With the help of GIS and Geodatabase, Jiangmen City is taken as an example for simulation. The result indicates that the city has a trend to expand northward and southward. The established model can be used as an virtual lab for decision support in urban planning and land policy-making.

关 键 词： 复合模型 空间演变

领　　域： [天文地球] [天文地球] [历史地理]