作　　者： ; ; ; ; ;

机构地区： 上海市园林科学研究所

出　　处： 《植物保护学报》 2005年第2期179-184,共6页

摘　　要： 为探索建立统一的城市绿地有害生物风险评价尺度,引入有害生物风险分析(PRA)理论。基于国际 PRA 规定程序,结合城市绿地生态系统特点及模糊数学理论,利用德尔菲法及层次分析法,探讨城市绿地有害生物风险分析体系工作程序、评价指标和评价值的计算方法。利用此方法评价了上海城市绿地中新发现的16种害虫和7种病害的风险性。结果表明:咖啡豹蠹蛾等3种害虫、柳杉赤枯等4种病害风险指数在0.6～0.8,风险级别为高;棉褐带卷叶蛾等9种害虫、杨树锈病等3种病害风险指数在0.4～0.6,风险级别为中;木樨瘿螨等4种害虫风险指数在0.2～0.4,风险级别为低。根据不同风险等级,提出相关风险管理策略。 To find a uniform solution for evaluating the risk of urban greening pests, we introduced idea of pest risk analysis （PRA） to urban greening ecosystem and set up a model for analyzing the risk level of the pest. Based on the rule of international standards for pest measurements （ ISPM）, fuzzy mathematics theory and characteristics of the urban greening ecosystem, we discussed the criterion of evaluation and calculation measures of the model on the method of AHP and Delphi. Using this model, 16 species of insects and 7 kinds of plant diseases in Shanghai greenbelt was evaluated. The result showed that the high risk level with the value from 0.6 to 0.8 involved 3 species of insects, such as Zeuzera coffeae, Dasychira pudibunda et al and 4 kinds of plant diseases, such as Cercospora sequoiae, Sphaeropsis sapinea et al. The middle risk level with the value from 0.4 to 0.6 involved 9 species of insects, such as Adoxophyes orana, Cyrtotrachelus longimanus et al and 3 kinds of plant diseases, such as Melampsora rostrupii, Ustilago striiformis et al. The low risk level with the value from 0.2 to 0.4 involved 4 species of pests, such as Aceria osmanthis, Parthenolecanium corni et al. Finally, the strategy of the risk management for these pests was discussed.

关 键 词： 城市绿地 有害生物风险分析 体系建设 风险管理

领　　域： [农业科学] [农业科学]