作　　者： ; (张卫国）;

机构地区： 甘肃草原生态研究所

出　　处： 《草业科学》 1995年第1期43-48,共6页

摘　　要： 针对甘肃省主要牧区之一甘南草原的畜牧业实际状况，应用系统动力学仿真模拟技术，借助系统动力学流图、数据表格函数，分析了甘南草地畜牧业发展的动力和制约因素；预测了甘南草地畜牧业３０年（１９９０～２０２０）发展变化的动态过程；建立了甘南草地畜牧业中长期发展的动力学模型。模拟结果表明，冷季牧草不足是限制甘南草地畜牧业发展的主要障碍。因此，草地季节畜牧业的实施，对提高甘南草地畜牧业生产能力意义重大。 In accordance with the practical situation of Gannan grassland animal husbandry,the computer emula-tion technique of the system dynamics model was applied.With the help of the system dynamics flow chart,date and table functions,the motive force af1d restrictions of the development of Gannan grassland animalhusbandry was analysed.The dynamical course of development and change for 30 years(1990～2020)onGannan grassland animal husbandry was calculated. The system dynamics models of dovelopment forintermediate or long term on Gannan grassland animal husbandry were established.It was suggested that theherbage and forage shortage was a primary limiting problem to hinder the productivity of Gannan grasslandanimal husbandry. Therefore the implement of grassland seasonal animal husbandry made the productivetyof Gannan grassland animal husbandry increase.

关 键 词： 草地 畜牧 模拟研究 发展 甘肃南部

领　　域： [经济管理]