作　　者： ; ;

机构地区： 华中理工大学电力工程系

出　　处： 《华中理工大学学报》 1995年第A01期138-141,共4页

摘　　要： 采用一种改进型的灰色预测方法即灰色校正变模型法对电力系统的短期负荷进行预测．该方法的特点是能根据电力负荷在不同预测点的变化趋势，自动选择在给定预测点上预测误差最小的预测模型，并针对电力负荷的季节性、周期性变化的特点，采用系数法进行修正，从而给出各预测点的最佳预测结果． This paper presents an improved method based on the grey model for Short-term fore-cast of a power system,With this method,it is possible to autornatically select a load fore-cast model with a minimum forecasting error at a given point according to the tendency of thevariation of power load as well as the conditions in different seasons or other periodical fac-tors. Two similar calculating methods have been developed for load forecast of 1 to 14 davsand of 24 to 48 hours ahead.Comoared with observed daily and hourly load data for a Chi-nese electric utility,the forecasting errors of the 1 to 14 davs are found to be from-1.095%to 1.280%and those of the 24 hours ahead from-1.706%to 0.339%.

关 键 词： 短期负荷预报 灰色系统 电力系统分析

领　　域： [电气工程]