作　　者： ;

机构地区： 中山大学地理科学与规划学院城市与区域研究中心

出　　处： 《地理研究》 2005年第3期421-431,共11页

摘　　要： 城市化水平与经济增长水平相协调,是实现统筹城乡发展、统筹区域发展的重要途径,但我国城市化水平严重滞后于经济增长水平。因此本文旨在探索造成我国城市化滞后的经济因素,并对其影响程度进行定量分析。本文采用跨国经济实证分析中的标准分析工具面板数据分析,首先构造影响城市化水平的世界模型;然后,以本文构造的世界模型为基准,定量分析造成我国城市化滞后的经济因素;最后通过国际比较分析发现,在我国影响城市化水平的经济因素中,第二产业、第三产业和高等教育对城市化水平的影响能力,大致都只相当于世界平均水平的50%,该结果较以往基于横截面的分析结果更为准确。 The coordination between the levels of urbanization and economic growth is very important to realize rural-urban and regional development as a whole. But China's urbanization level lags behind economic growth level seriously. This paper aims to probe into the economic factors that contribute to the lag and to make quantitative analysis on its force. This topic has been discussed extensively by scholars using the general model with the panel data of cross-country in the world. The empirical growth literature has been documented that the estimate of panel data approach is more robust than that of cross-sectional approach in cross-country studies. First, we divide countries into low-income group, middle-income group and high-income group, then we select 70 countries and data between 1982 and 1997 which are offered by World Bank's World Development Report, and then we construct a world model which will affect urbanization level. By using the standard analysis tool-panel analysis in transnational economic empirical analysis, we found that in the period of low and middle-income, per capita GDP has the greatest effect on urbanization. Since the tertiary industry is the main force of urbanization, the secondary industry should be the original force of urbanization. In the period of high and middle-income, the force of tertiary industry has the greatest effect while in the period of high-income, the force of higher education and international trade becomes outstanding. Based on the world model, we construct a model which includes the factors that will affect China's urbanization level. By using the fourth and fifth census data and other official statistic data, we make a quantitative analysis on the economic factors which contribute to the lag of China's urbanization and found that the elasticities of per capita GDP, secondary industry ratio, tertiary industry ratio, international trade and higher education to urbanization are 0.420, 0.196, 0.197, 0.103 and 0.048 respectively. Finally, through the comparison between diffe

关 键 词： 经济因素 滞后 国际比较 城市化水平 中国 经济增长 定量分析 城乡发展 区域发展 影响程度 数据分析 工具面板 标准分析 实证分析 比较分析 第二产业 高等教育 第三产业 分析结果 世界 横截面 模型

领　　域： [经济管理] [经济管理] [经济管理]