作　　者： ; ; ;

机构地区： 华南理工大学电力学院

出　　处： 《湖北电力》 2005年第2期21-23,共3页

摘　　要： 时间序列分析与灰色系统理论相结合的方法是先采用灰色建模从数据中得到趋势项的数学模型,然后对剔除趋势项之后的数据进行时间序列分析,建立ARMA模型,将以上2 个模型结合起来构成组合模型,用于预测年电力负荷。应用实例证明,该方法具有容易实现、预测准确的优点,是一种有效的预测方法。 The method of unify the time series analysis and the gray system theory to forecast the annual electric consumption is first to use the gray modeling or stepwise regression, obtain the mathematical model of tendency term from the data, then process the data that had been eliminated the tendency term with time series analysis, building ARMA model, then to unify the above two models to a combination model to forecast the annual electric consumption. The application example proved that the method can be realized easily and predict accurately. It is an effective forecast method.

关 键 词： 时间序列 灰色模型 数学模型 年电力负荷

领　　域： [电气工程]