作　　者： ; ;

机构地区： 武汉理工大学管理学院

出　　处： 《培训与研究（湖北教育学院学报）》 2005年第1期55-58,共4页

摘　　要： 生态经济系统是经济子系统、社会子系统、生态环境子系统相耦合的复杂巨系统。本文以模糊推理系统和BP神经网络相结合的自适应神经模糊推理系统(ANFIS)来模拟生态经济系统的功能,进行预测。通过确定7个指标,采集1991年-2003年的数据,构建模型,进行训练、检验,建立了以上海市为代表的基于ANFIS的可持续发展预测控制模型。 Sustainable development of ecological and economic system depends on the coordinated degree of system components such as economic system, social system and the ecological environment system. Adaptive Network-based Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) developed from combination of fuzzy inference system (FIS) with back-propagation (BP) neural network was established to simulate structure and function of ecological-economic system. 7 factors were chosen as variable neurons at input layer, and environment investment index as output layer. A set of training data by means of real value of ecological-economic system's components from 1991 to 2003 was generated to train the ANFIS model. Sustainable development prediction and adjustment model about ecological and economic system of Shanghai based on ANFIS is established, simulating results shows that this model is effective. Thus a new and possible approach for prediction and adjustment of this complex system is exploited.

关 键 词： 可持续发展 生态经济系统 经济子系统 社会子系统 构建模型 指标 预测控制 神经网络 自适应

领　　域： [文化科学] [经济管理]