作　　者： ; ; ; ;

机构地区： 宁夏大学

出　　处： 《自然灾害学报》 2015年第2期157-164,共8页

摘　　要： 宁夏是中国的气候敏感地区,研究全球气候变化引起的干旱变化特征对其应对气候变化、指导农业生产和构建西北生态屏障具有重要的指导意义。根据宁夏的生态分区,在北部引黄灌区、中部干旱带和南部山区分别选取代表性的气象站,基于1960-2012年的逐月降水和平均温度资料,采用标准化降水蒸散指数(SPEI)和Mann-Kendall非参数检验方法,研究了宁夏近50a来干旱的时空变化特征。结果表明,宁夏近50a的气候变暖事实存在,年均增温0.027~0.040℃,由北向南增温幅度降低,年降水量显示减少趋势,但变化不显著;宁夏近50a来基本上经历了一个由湿润期到干旱期的旱化过程,1960-1980年期间为近50a内的湿润期,1980-1995年为气候波动期,而1995年以后全区基本进入干旱期;南部山区的干旱发生频率最高,中部干旱带次之,引黄灌区最低。 Ningxia is a sensitive region of climate change in China. Study on characteristics of drought variations in Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region has an important guiding significance for local government to cope with climate change,guide agricultural production and build ecological barrier in northwest China. According to the characteristics of ecological zoning in Ningxia,representative meteorological stations which locate in Yellow River irrigation area of northern Ningxia,arid zone of middle Ningxia and mountains area of southern Ningxia respectirely were selected. The monthly precipitation data and the monthly mean temperature data from 1961 to 2012,the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index(SPEI),and the non-parametric Mann-Kendall test method were used to research spatiotemporal change law of drought in Ningxia in recent 50 years. The results show that the fact of climatic changes in Ningxia under the background of global warming exists recent 50 years,the yearly mean temperature is rising 0. 027-0. 040℃ per year and this rising tendency decreases from northern to southern; the yearly precipitation is decreasing,but its tendency is not obvious. There experienced a climate change process from wet period to dry period in the recent 50 years. The wet period was in 1960-1980,after then a fluctuant climate period was ap-peared in 1980-1995 and the dry period of whole province was coming from 1995. The region which has a highest frequency of drought occurrence is Mountains area of southern Ningxia,the lower is Arid zone of middle Ningxia,and the lowest is Yellow River irrigation area of northern Ningxia.

关 键 词： 干旱 气候变化 标准化降水蒸散指数 检验 宁夏

领　　域： [天文地球]