作　　者： ; ;

机构地区： 广东外语外贸大学

出　　处： 《广东外语外贸大学学报》 2012年第2期31-36,共6页

摘　　要： 本文采用上海证券交易所2007-2009年间被特别处理的30家财务危机公司,并配对30家同行业同等规模的财务正常公司作为研究样本,最后利用SAS分析软件建立模型,采用披露的财务数据,建立指标体系并通过逐步判别分析、贝叶斯判别和交互验证方法,将有效指标列入模型中,之后用测试样本对模型进行检验,最终建立较为精确的财务危机预警模型。 This study is based on a sample made up of 30 companies with financial crisis who were given a special discipline by Shanghai Stock Exchange in 2007-2009,and 30 corresponding normal companies without financial problem.It formulates a model using of SAS analytical software,and establishes a system of indicators by disclosing financial data.Then the effective indicators will be included in the model,after testing these with the method of stepwise discriminant analysis,Bayesian discrimination and cross-validation.Finally,following a test of the model with the sample,it establishes a more accurate model for forewarning financial crises.

关 键 词： 财务预警 贝叶斯判别 逐步判别分析 交互验证

领　　域： [经济管理] [经济管理] [经济管理]